Bernanke's Crystal Ball

Ben Bernanke told 60 Minutes, "we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year. We'll see recovery beginning next year. And it will pick up steam over time."

Hey that's great, but how does he know? I asked the Magic Eight Ball and it told me to Ask Again Later.

Sorry to be a Debby Downer, but we're probably just beginning to see massive trickle down on Main Street. With more bank failures popping up each week and big businesses closing everywhere, I'm apt to listen more to my Magic Eight Ball.

An article by the Associated Press consults several economists on the issues of jobs, housing, and stocks. Basically they all say agree that no one knows when we'll see the economy bottom out.

According to Economist Sophia Koropeckyj, a managing director at Moody's Economy.com the two signs that the economy is in recover are: an inching up in companies hiring temporary workers and a rise in the number of hours worked by those who have managed to keep their part-time and full-time jobs.

It's too early to see if the President's Recovery plan will work. So, I'm not sure what Bernanke is trying to sell, but good for him for embracing the power of positive thinking.

By now I'm sure you know the real reason everything has come crashing around us, but just in case you weren't sure...it's Allen Greenspan's fault. Just check out this video, it does a nice job of explaining it all.

Government Grant Scams

Government grant scams have been around for a long time, but with the passing of the President's Stimulus Program Internet scammers are popping up like spring daffodils.

You might be curious if there is government money available for you. It is true that searching through the Gov's database is time consuming and a bit overwhelming, but don't believe any website or person that tells you they can provide an easy to read/understand grant list.

I typed in "stimulus grants" into my web browser to see what would come up. If you are familiar with the Google layout you know the first things that appear are sponsored links (a.k.a. paid advertising) they are located at the top and right of your screen. After that you'll find unpaid articles and websites. Many of the right hand links contain the words "Free" or even "Warning". These headlines may make you think that they are useful sites. I clicked a couple, one that said "Free" and another that said "Government Grant Scam". Both led me to sites that looked like blogs, but in actuality are advertising. The blog-like text in both tries to sound like they are on your side. They offer advice like "Our top pick is The Grant University which is 100% free" and "After 6 months of testing, and after trying several grant kits on the market our team has created a list of the best grant products currently being sold."

Usually the site promises free information that comes on a CD. You only need to pay shipping, but to do that you must provide a credit card and agree to the terms. NOTE: Terms is the biggest tip that this is a scam. The terms state that you'll get a free or trial membership of some kind. Often after 30 days you'll then be charged a monthly fee and sometimes an automatic one-time fee for some so-called benefit.

(click to enlarge)

These sites althought less than reputable are not illegal. The premise behind the scammer business model is also not a new one. To get real, free information on government grants go right to the source. The Government has a fairly easy to navigate grant site call Grants.gov. Only official U.S. Government sites can use the .gov extension on URLs. You might also look at Recovery.gov.

Hey, Where's My Tax Rebate?

On May 2 the media was quick to announce that tax rebates would start showing up in the bank accounts of anyone who signed up for direct deposit. Maybe I just didn't hear the small print, but here it is May 8th and I haven't gotten mine yet. That's because there is a schedule for the distribution and I just happen to have an SSN ending in a high number. So, I'll be waiting until May 16th to see a deposit.

Paper checks won't begin to be sent until May 16th. There are 9 waves of checks being sent. The last batch goes to SSNs ending in 88 through 99 and won't be sent until July 11th. So if you're anxiously awaiting your rebate you can curb your anticipation by checking the IRS Stimulus Payment Schedule.

Once you know your distribution date you can find out more about the rebate status by using the IRS online tool Where's My Stimulus Payment?. If you other have questions such as: you've moved, changed bank accounts, or owe back taxes then you should check out the Stimulus Payment FAQ.

Now that I understand the plan (and I'm so glad I chose direct deposit) I can look forward to for to using part of those fund to get my ceiling fans installed. My plan is to do my small part to stimulate the economy and save on my utility bill this summer. The rest will go in my credit union savings.

Will Paper Rebate Checks go to Spending?

Paper checks for tax rebates start hitting the mailboxes May 9. And retailers are doing their part to ensure that your check goes back into the economy just as the Government intended.

Here's a short list of what's being offered:

• Supervalu parent company of Jewel-Osco and Cub Foods--redeem your check for store gift cards in $300 increments and get an extra $30 (up to 10 percent) added to each card. The offer is available May 2 through July 3.


• Sears Holdings Corp, owner of Sears, Kmart and Lands End, will cash in rebates checks for a gift card in the amount of the check plus 10 percent. The gift cards carry no expiration dates or fees.


• Staples purchases of more than $499 with a Staples credit card, will receive no interest and require no payments for six months.


• Holiday Inn Sunspree's Vacation on the Government Package is $1,200 for a five-night stay for two in Virginia Beach, Va., including breakfast and dinner, a savings of up to $60 per couple per night. (oh, whoo hoo)


• Walmart announced they will cash out checks for free. They’ve also said that they hope to increase sales and pass savings to customers with further price cuts to “key grocery and consumable items” which are listed as shampoo, juice and sports drinks. Funny, when I think of key grocery items I picture bread, milk and rice, which also happen to be the very things that are soaring in price everywhere.

photo by ratterrell

Meanwhile at MSN Money, Liz Pulliam Weston has some interesting arguments against exchanging your rebate for cards. Besides the obvious dislike of gift cards and spending she points out these offers are only from national retailers. Locally run stores can afford such programs and can’t compete for your rebate. Yet they’re being hit hardest right now by numerous economic strains.

Earlier in the year we (and everyone else) polled readers regarding their plans for the tax rebate. Majority said they would use it to paydown debt. But one reader commented with a prediction that big screen TVs would go flying off the shelves. You know I think this reader is right, particularly for the people who chose to take a check over direct deposit.